THE ORIGINS OF THE TAIWAN PROBLEM, 1895-1979

During the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, Taiwan experienced both colonization by Western powers and occupation and governance by the Ming and Qing dynasties.¹ The Penghu Islands, a small island group off the west coast of Taiwan now considered part of Taiwan, were considered part of China as far back as the fourteenth century. The Dutch and Spanish jockeyed for imperial influence on Taiwan itself in the seventeenth century, with both states establishing a presence on the island.

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2013: How the War Began

dThe war that erupted between the United States and China in 2013 was a classic case of miscalculation by both parties. Neither Beijing nor Washington thought that the other side would escalate the long-standing tensions over Taiwan to the point of armed conflict. Yet armed conflict was the result, and the world has been paying the price ever since. For a quarter century, the world’s two leading powers have been locked in a cold war that has been at least as intense as the earlier surly confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. The prospects for global peace and prosperity that looked so promising in the 1990s following the end of the first cold war have turned to ashes. U.S. policymakers have undoubtedly asked themselves many times whether the brief but intense war that broke out in July 2013 could have been avoided. They probably have asked themselves at least as many times whether defending Taiwan was worth the price.

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America’s Coming War with China: A Collision Course over Taiwan: Introduction

THE DANGER OF A COLLISION COURSE

On the surface, America’s relations with China seem to be rather cordial. Tensions spiked in April 2001 over the incident in which a U.S. spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter plane, but that quarrel soon receded, and ever since the September 11 terrorist attacks China and the United States have cooperated in the campaign against radical Islamic terrorism. More recently, Washington and Beijing have worked together to induce North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program. Meanwhile, the important economic relationship has continued to grow, with bilateral trade now exceeding $160 billion a year.

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America’s Coming War with China: A Collision Course over Taiwan

CONTENTS

Introduction

1. 2013: How the War Began
2. The Origins of the Taiwan Problem, 1895-1979
3. The Taiwan Problem Evolves: 1979-2000
4. Some Ominous Trends in Taiwan
5. Some Ominous Trends in the PRC
6. Washington’s Muddled Policy
7. The Dynamic Military Balance
8. Avoiding Calamity